Israel did it, and began drilling in the Karish field, considering that the time to waste time with Lebanon had ended. The same applies to Hezbollah, as it did it as well, and sent three marches to Karish last Saturday night, after finding itself embarrassed when it vowed a month before this date that it would It will prevent the Israelis from excavating before demarcating the borders between the two sides, as its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said, “Any folly that Israel undertakes will have repercussions, not only strategic, but existential. And what Israel will lose in any war it threatens is much greater than what Lebanon can lose.
Although this statement is a serious threat and warns of war if Israel persists from the point of view of the party, Nasrallah finds it difficult to make such a decision, but he is forced at this particular time to direct his messages or marches for reasons that Hezbollah cannot refuse what he is asking for. »The Iranian, directed the marches after the failure of the last round of negotiations that took place in Doha between Iran and the United States on the nuclear agreement, and in a second Iranian message to the American administration that it is able to strain the files it holds.
In a clearer sense, Hezbollah wanted to reaffirm to all parties at home and abroad that Iran is still clinging to a number of Lebanese papers, especially the card of Israel's northern borders and transit gas from the Middle East to Europe, but surprising is the official Lebanese silence against the background of Hezbollah launching these marches, as Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib contented himself with minimizing the military dimensions of the incident, which is one of the signs of the state's submission to the party's control, which will not serve the authority or official Lebanon, on the Arab and international levels.
Did the message reach the Lebanese state, specifically to the Lebanese negotiating side?
The message, according to an observer political source, told Okaz: Sending marches falls within the framework of the game of deterrence, and renewing power over the state that the decision of peace and war rests with the party alone. As for the marches, from the party’s point of view, it strengthens the Lebanese negotiating position that can use force with Israel. If necessary, after the American and Israeli sides sensed Lebanon's need for this wealth, and its inability to refuse it due to its deteriorating economic conditions.
Has the Lebanese state really buried its head in the sand, leaving Hezbollah free to play in the negotiating arena? Especially since the party and Israel exchanged messages through direct statements, when the party was informed of its statement that the required mission was accomplished, and the message was received, which was met by a response from the Israeli side confirming that it had received the message and saw in it that the party does not want a military confrontation now, but it is able to repeat that matter. in the coming weeks.
Informed political sources told Okaz that the march incident is more dangerous than reading the matter militarily, and whether or not war will break out between the two sides, especially since Lebanon has been officially informed, i.e. through the three presidents and Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bou Saab, from the American Ambassador Dorothy Shea officially. Positive about the progress made by the American mediator Amos Hochstein regarding indirect negotiations, and these negotiations were disregarded by Hezbollah, which sent many messages, but the most dangerous of them is the response from inside Lebanon to Israel's targeting of Iranian defense systems stores in southern Tartous, even if it is true This information, which was leaked intentionally or unintentionally from the corridors of the party, we are on the verge of regional tension between all parties that adhere to the Lebanese demarcation file, and this was translated by the words of Amos Hochstein, who made contacts with Lebanese officials concerned with the demarcation file and asked for clarification, stressing that this incident would Stop negotiating efforts.
Iran and Hezbollah's fears of demarcation
The source pointed out that Hezbollah has now become the main suspect by the international community and that it is the only obstruction preventing the demarcation of the maritime borders with Israel, for two reasons:
The first is that Hezbollah wants Western guarantees and recognition of its future role in return for what is called a “concession of demarcation.”
The second is that the party fears recognition by the State of Lebanon of the current borders of the State of Israel, which will empty its role and the role of its weapons of its content, and thus lift the veil over the legitimacy of its weapons, and thus move towards abolishing its armed role and, more than that, ending Iran's role in Lebanon.
The question remains: Will war break out?
The military expert, retired Brigadier General in the Lebanese Army, Ahmad Temsah, explained to Okaz that the rules of the game are held between the two parties. On the one hand, Hezbollah and its successor, Iran, will not carry out the threat to strike the exploration ship, because Lebanon cannot bear a devastating Israeli response on the scale of the July war. Because it is economically, financially and politically worn out, and the same is the case in Israel, the political situation is deteriorating and it is not possible to take military action, and therefore this operation has no military translation, because the marches did not carry any ammunition.
In a reading of Hezbollah’s message after the operation, Brigadier General Temsah said: “Hezbollah flexed its muscles in front of its environment in a way that preserves its image for it. It is the first keen on Lebanon’s oil wealth, especially since the south of Lebanon is its theater, so it was forced to tell Israel that such an act in Karish needs approval or Asking permission from him.” Israel responded by dropping these marches, and drilling in Karish will not stop, and therefore the “energy” will send gas to Europe as soon as possible because the decision to dispense with Russian oil has become a pressing and urgent matter, especially since Putin continues his war in Ukraine until winter. In order to cut off the oil supply. And according to the great international decision to dispense with Russian oil, no party, not even Hezbollah, will dare open the door to obstructing this project.
Hezbollah plays in the theater of negotiations for its own interests, disregarding the issue of negotiations, which is a national issue. And as long as the party owns or derives the legitimate cover from power, Lebanon and its people are the ones who will pay, as usual, all the costs and bills resulting from its recklessness and subordination to Iran.
One of the most prominent prices that the Lebanese will pay in the coming days is freezing their right to the oil wealth for additional years, so as not to say that it will be completely lost. All the atmosphere confirms that we are on the verge of an actual freezing of the negotiations for the demarcation of the maritime borders, which for years did not result in anything other than more proposals and options between the 23rd and 29th lines. , and the lines between them, including the Hoff line and a line invented by the American mediator Amos Hochstein.
Rawiya Hashmi (Beirut) @HechmiRawiya